Marius Årthun
RF4 leader
University of Bergen

Morten Skogen
RF4 co-leader
Institute of Marine

The Nansen Legacy uses empirical, conceptual, statistical, or physical models (including hindcasts), or a combination thereof, for the diagnosis of the present Barents environment and prognosis of its future.

A variety of numerical general circulation models (GCMs) are used and improved from the range of weather and sea ice forecast models, to regional ice-ocean hindcast models, to fully coupled earth system models tailored for predicting (seasons to decades) or projecting the future (decades to centuries, including what-if scenarios).


Biophysical, mechanistic, and non-deterministic food web models are used to investigate the likely impacts of expected future environmental changes.

The novelty of the work lies in how the combination of model approaches e.g., of process-based and non-deterministic models constitute a framework for the projection of ecosystem states into the future.