Team leaders

Publications ‘The future Barents Sea’

Marius Årthun
RF4 leader
University of Bergen

Morten Skogen
RF4 co-leader
Institute of Marine Research


Aarflot JM, Eriksen E, Prokopchuk IP, Svensen C, Søreide JE, Wold A, Skogen MD (2023) New insights into the Barents Sea Calanus glacialis population dynamics and distribution. Progress in Oceanography 103106.

Durant JMHolt REOno K, Langangen Ø (2023) Predatory walls may impair climate warming-associated population expansion. Ecology e4130.

Ericson Y, Fransson A, Chierici M, Jones EM, Skjelvan I, Omar A, Olsen A, Becker M (2023) Rapid fCO2 rise in the northern Barents Sea and Nansen Basin. Progress in Oceanography 217, 103079

Fransner F, Olsen A, Årthun M, Counillon F, Tjiputra J, Samuelsen A, Keenlyside N (2023) Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. Nature Communications Earth & Environment 4, 141.

Langbehn TJ, Aarflot JM, Freer JJ, Varpe Ø (2023) Visual predation risk and spatial distributions of large Arctic copepods along gradients of sea ice and bottom depth. Limnology and Oceanography.

Müller M, Batrak Y, Dinesen F, Grote R, Wang K (2023) Challenges in the description of sea-ice for a kilometer-scale weather forecasting system. Weather and Forecasting.

Nascimento MCHusson B, Guillet L, Pedersen T (2023) Modelling the spatial shifts of functional groups in the Barents Sea using a climate-driven spatial food web model. Ecological Modelling 481: 110358.

Rabault J, Müller M, Voermans J, Brazhnikov D, Marchenko A, Biuw M, Nose T, Waseda T, Johansson M, Breivik Ø, Sutherland G, Hole LR, Johnson M, Jensen A,  Gundersen O, Kristoffersen Y, Babanin A, Tedesco P, Christensen KH, Kristiansen M, Hope G, Kodaira T, de Aguiar V, Taelman C, Quigely CP, Filchuk K, Mahoney AR (2023) A dataset of direct observations of sea ice drift and waves in ice. Scientific Data 10, 251.

Regan H, Rampal P,  Ólason EBoutin GKorosov A (2023) Modelling the evolution of Arctic multiyear sea ice over 2000–2018. The Cryosphere17(5), 1873–1893.

Rieke O, Årthun M, Dörr JS (2023) Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea. The Cryosphere 17: 1445-1456.


Cornish SB, Johnson HL, Mallett RDC, Dörr J, Kostov Y, Richards AE (2022) Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories. Nature Communications 13: 7800.

Dunse T, Dong K, Aas KS, Stige LC (2022) Regional-scale phytoplankton dynamics and their association with glacier meltwater runoff in Svalbard. Biogeosciences 19(2): 271-294.

Durant JM, Ono K, Langangen O (2022) Empirical evidence of nonlinearity in bottom up effect in a marine predator-prey system. Biology Letters 18: 20220309.

Duarte P, Brændshøi J, Shcherbin D, Barras P, Albretsen J, Gusdal Y, Szapiro N, Martinsen A, Samuelsen A, Wang K, Debernard JB (2022) Implementation and evaluation of open boundary conditions for sea ice in a regional coupled ocean (ROMS) and sea ice (CICE) modeling system. Geoscientific Model Development 15: 4373-4392.

Efstathiou E, Eldevik T, Årthun M, Lind S (2022) Spatial patterns, mechanisms, and predictability of Barents Sea ice change. Journal of Climate 35: 2961-2973.

Husson B, Lind S, Fossheim M, Kato-Solvang H, Skern-Mauritzen M, Pécuchet L, Ingvaldsen RB, Dolgov AV, Primicerio R (2022) Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic. Global Change Biology n/

Payne MR, Danabasoglu G, Keenlyside N, Matei D, Miesner AK, Yang S, Yeager SG (2022) Skillful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts. Nature Communications 13(1): 1-9.

Pedersen T (2022) Comparison between trophic positions in the Barents Sea estimated from stable isotope data and a mass balance model. Frontiers in Marine Science 9.

Planque B, Aarflot JM, Buttay L, Carroll J, Fransner F, Hansen C, Husson B, Langangen Ø, Lindstrøm U, Pedersen T, Primicerio R, Sivel E, Skogen MD, Strombom E, Stige LC, Varpe Ø, Yoccoz NG (2022) A standard protocol for describing the evaluation of ecological models. Ecological Modelling 471: 110059.

Planque B, Favreau A, Husson B, Mousing EA, Hansen C, Broms C, Lindstrøm USivel E (2022) Quantification of trophic interactions in the Norwegian Sea pelagic food-web over multiple decades. ICES Journal of Marine Science 79(6): 1815-1830.

Shu Q, Wang Q, Årthun M, Wang S, Song Z, Zhang M, Qiao F (2022) Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. Science Advances 8: eabn9755.

Sivel EPlanque B, Lindstrøm UYoccoz NG (2022) Combined effects of temperature and fishing mortality on the Barents Sea ecosystem stability. Fisheries Oceanography: 1-15.

Aarflot JM, Hjøllo SS, Strand E, Skogen MD (2022) Transportation and predation control structures the distribution of a key calanoid in the Nordic Seas. Progress in Oceanography 202: 102761.


Bethke I, Wang Y, Counillon F, Keenlyside N, Kimmritz M, Fransner F, Samuelsen A, Langehaug H, Svendsen L, Chiu PG, Passos L, Bentsen M, Guo C, Gupta A, Tjiputra J, Kirkevåg A, Olivié D, Seland Ø, Solsvik Vågane J, Fan Y et al. (2021) NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP. Geoscientific Model Development 14: 7073-7116.

Dörr J, Årthun M, Eldevik T, Madonna E (2021) Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Climate 34: 8635-8653.

Løken TK, Rabault J, Jensen A, Sutherland G, Christensen KH, Müller M (2021) Wave measurements from ship mounted sensors in the Arctic marginal ice zone. Cold Regions Science and Technology 182: 103207.

Melsom A (2021) Edge displacement scores. The Cryosphere Discuss 2021: 1-14.

Ólason E, Rampal P, Dansereau V (2021) On the statistical properties of sea-ice lead fraction and
heat fluxes in the Arctic. The Cryosphere 15: 1053-1064.

Pedersen T, Mikkelsen N, Lindstrøm U, Renaud PE, Nascimento MC, Blanchet M-A, Ellingsen IH, Jørgensen LL, Blanchet H (2021) Overexploitation, recovery, and warming of the Barents Sea ecosystem during 1950–2013. Frontiers in Marine Science 8.

Silva E, Counillon F, Brajard J, Korosov A, Pettersson LH, Samuelsen A, Keenlyside N (2021) Twenty-one years of phytoplankton bloom phenology in the Barents, Norwegian, and North Seas. Frontiers in Marine Science 8.

Sivel E, Planque B, Lindstrøm U, Yoccoz NG (2021) Multiple configurations and fluctuating trophic control in the Barents Sea food-web. PLOS ONE 16: e0254015.

Thomas EE, Müller M, Bohlinger P, Batrak Y, Szapiro N (2021) A kilometer-scale coupled atmosphere-wave forecasting system for the European Arctic. Weather and Forecasting.

Årthun M, Onarheim IH, Dörr J, Eldevik T (2021) The seasonal and regional transition to an ice-free Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters 48: e2020GL090825.


Asbjørnsen H, Årthun M, Skagseth Ø, Eldevik T (2020) Mechanisms underlying recent arctic Atlantification. Geophysical Research Letters 47: e2020GL088036. 

Pecuchet L, Blanchet M-A, Frainer A, Husson B, Jørgensen LL, Kortsch S, Primicerio R (2020)
Novel feeding interactions amplify the impact of species redistribution on an arctic food web. Global Change Biology 26: 4894-4906.

Skagseth Ø, Eldevik T, Årthun M, Asbjørnsen H, Lien VS, Smedsrud LH (2020) Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. Nature Climate Change 10: 661-666.

Aarflot JMDalpadado P, Fiksen Ø (2020) Foraging success in planktivorous fish increases with
topographic blockage of prey distributions. Marine Ecology Progress Series 644: 129-142.


Batrak Y, Müller M (2019) On the warm bias in atmospheric reanalyses induced by the missing snow over arctic sea-ice. Nature Communications 10: 4170.

Melsom A, Palerme C, Müller M (2019) Validation metrics for ice edge position forecasts. Ocean
Sceince 15: 615-630.

Palerme C, Müller M, Melsom A (2019) An intercomparison of verification scores for evaluating the sea ice edge position in seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters 46: 4757-4763.

Planque B, Mullon C (2019) Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems. ICES Journal of
Marine Science 77: 1573-1588.

Årthun M, Eldevik T, Smedsrud LH (2019) The Role of Atlantic heat transport in future arctic winter sea ice loss. Journal of Climate 32: 3327-3341.


Batrak Y, Müller M (2018) Atmospheric response to kilometer-scale changes in sea ice concentration within the marginal ice zone. Geophysical Research Letters 45: 6702-6709.

Muilwijk M, Smedsrud LH, Ilicak M, Drange H (2018) Atlantic Water heat transport variability in the 20th century Arctic Ocean from a global ocean model and observations. Journal of
Geophysical Research: Oceans 123: 8159-8179.

Onarheim IH, Eldevik T, Smedsrud LH, Stroeve JC (2018) Seasonal and regional manifestation of Arctic Sea ice loss. Journal of Climate 31: 4917-4932.

Årthun M, Bogstad B, Daewel U, Keenlyside NS, Sandø AB, Schrum C, Ottersen G (2018) Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PLOS ONE 13: e0206319.