The Nansen Legacy Project has spent the last 5 years conducting field work, laboratory research, and modeling studies investigation the changing climate system and its impacts on the structure and function of the Barents Sea ecosystem.
In this side event we hear about industry and management concerns for the future Barents Sea and their knowledge needs for planning for future activities. Nansen Legacy scientists then report on projections of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological aspects of the system for 2050 and 2100.
An open, moderated panel-debate will follow to address issues of industry development, ecosystem change, and environmental management and protection.
Organizers: Paul E. Renaud, Trude Borch (Akvaplan-niva); Marius Årthun (University of Bergen)
Date: 30/0/24
Time: 17:30 CET
Program: https://arcticfrontiers.com/conference-program/
Short (10-15 min) presentations:
Benedicte Nielsen (Norges Råfisklag): ‘Warming of the Barent Sea – how will it impact fishing?’
Dr. Per Sandberg (Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries) ‘Management of fisheries under climate change’
Dr. Marius Årthun (University of Bergen and Bjerkness Centre for Climate Research): ‘The future Barents Sea – a synthesis of physical, ecological and biogeochemical changes toward 2050 and 2100’
Panel discussion (30 min) Moderator: Dr. Anita Evenset (Akvaplan-niva)
Warming of the Barent Sea – how will it impact fishing?
Fishing is one of the most important livelihoods in the North of Norway. For the last ten years, the economical results have been at an all-time high.
Climate predictions tell us that the Barents Sea is heating up. Consequently, fish populations will probably change their migrating patterns accordingly.
Can we spot changes already? How does the fishing industry in the North prepare for the changes to come, both in the short and the long term?
Benedicte Nielsen is a fisheries economist with decades of experience from various parts of the fishing industry. Employed in Norges Råfisklag since 2005, she is currently in the position of Public Relations Manager.
Per Sandberg holds a position as Specialist Advisor at the Environmental Section in the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries in Bergen. He is an economist specialising in fishery economics with a master from the University of Bergen in 1988 and a PhD from the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration in 2006. Per has held various positions at the Directorate of Fisheries including Head of its Statistics Department from 2005 – 2020 and Director General of Fisheries in 2020 – 2021. He is a Norwegian Delegate to the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES).
Management of fisheries under climate change
Norway is one of the leading fisheries nations in the world, ranking as number 10 in terms of catch volume.
Its fisheries are based on fish stocks shared with other countries, and some of the most important ones are found in the Northeast Atlantic and the Barents Sea.
Climate change may influence both the productivity and distribution of fish stocks, as well as species interaction.
It is important to assess the consequences of these.
In this short introduction Specialist Director Per Sandberg at the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries will elaborate on climate change and some of their possible implications for Norwegian Fisheries.
The future Barents Sea – a synthesis of physical, ecological and biogeochemical changes toward 2050 and 2100
The Barents Sea is a hotspot for ongoing Arctic climate change, manifested in a rapid warming of the ocean and the atmosphere, and a strong decline of the winter sea-ice cover. These changes in the physical environment have large consequences for the marine ecosystems and fish populations. In a warmer future climate, both physical and ecological changes are expected to intensify.
Here we provide a first comprehensive overview of future climate change projections for the Barents Sea, and the associated physical, ecological, and biogeochemical consequences based climate models, end-to-end ecosystem models, and statistical models of ecological processes. We detail and discuss changes in ocean and atmospheric temperatures, stratification, ocean acidification, primary production, and fish stocks.
We furthermore discuss potential future changes in human activities and their impacts, including changes in shipping activity and contaminants. We analyze results for two time horizons – the near-future (2040-2050) and the far-future (2090-2100) – and for two different emission scenarios; one with moderate future greenhouse gas emissions (SSP2-4.5) and one high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Implications of these results are far-reaching, including outlining the sensitivity of climate change to future emissions, informing regional management strategies, and potentially identifying needs for adaptation to changes already likely to occur
Marius Årthun studies basin-scale ocean circulation and air-sea interaction in the Arctic-Atlantic region, and how associated climate variations are predictable on interannual-to-decadal time scales. He combines observations and fieldwork with climate and regional ice-ocean models. In the Nansen Legacy project, he has led the Research Focus and synthesis Task Force on the Future Barents Sea.
Anita Evenset is Director of the Environmental Department at Akvaplan-niva.
During the past 30 years she has been working with different research and consultancy projects focusing on impacts of anthropogenic activities on northern species and ecosystems.
Dr. Evenset will moderate the panel discussion.