The future Barents Sea

The sustainable management of resources and environment is fundamentally about foresight. It depends critically on our capacity to observe, understand and eventually predict the transitions between past, present and future states of weather, climate, and the marine ecosystem.

Hypothesis: There is a substantial practical potential for the prognostic qualification of the physical environment and ecosystem of the Barents Sea and neighboring Arctic from days to decades into the future.

When considering the coupled physical-biological system, this work package addresses the fundamental question under which conditions and to what extent change in the climate system translates into distinguishable response in the ecosystem.

The novelty of the Nansen Legacy approach lies in how the combination of model approaches e.g., of process-based and non-deterministic models constitute a framework for the projection of ecosystem states into the future.